Mathematics in Education, Research and Applications (MERAA), 2017(3), 2
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Published online 2017-12-31
DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.15414/meraa.2017.03.02.66-72
Opportunities of using the forecasting model on an example of time series analysis
Martin Mariš
Slovak university of Agriculture in Nitra, Nitra, Slovak Republic
Article Fulltext (PDF), pp. 66–72
- Time series analysis is an integral part of every empirical investigation which aims at describing and modeling the evolution over time of a variable or a set of variables
in a statistically coherent way. In the paper we have used Brown triple exponential smoothing model for estimating the trend as well as a forecast of a given
time series of the share of renewable energy sources on gross inland energy consumption on a example of the Slovakia and EU average. According to the model,
Slovak Republic might reach the share of the renewables on gross inland energy consumption till to 2020 with anticipated share of 16.25% (90%CI: 13.98: 18.93)
and in case of the EU-28 with anticipated share of 15.94% (90% CI: 13.08: 18.08) failing short of expected 20% share set as a overall target.
- Keywords: Brown model, renewable energy sources, gross inland consumption, energy policy
- JEL Classification: C53